Hennessy Gold Cup

Newbury - Saturday 29th November

I’ve been intending to produce a preview the Hennessy for a couple of weeks now.
I was originally waiting for confirmation that one of my early fancies, Theatre Guide, was running (he’s not !) - and then Pricewise tipped my other fancy, Many Clouds…

Consequently it’s been back to the drawing board, in search of a probable runner at a value price…

When trying to solve the Hennessy puzzle, I always lean towards a particular type of horse - a second season novice who has shown some quality form the previous season, without completely ruining his handicap mark in the process…

Many Clouds fitted that bill – and was of definite interest at 12/1. He’s 7/1 now however – and unlikely to be much shorter on the day.

Djakadam also fits the bill – and is very interesting as the sole Willie Mullins raider. He warrants the utmost respect simply because of that - however he is totally unproven over the trip and far too short to consider, at 11/2.

Despite showing his hand last year, when almost winning the RSA Chase, Smad Place gets to run off an acceptable mark of 155. That’s broadly in line with his hurdles mark – and there is reason to think that he can surpass it over fences.

All things being equal, he should be a player…

The vibes for Fingals Bay are very strong – and he will be representing the combination of Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson, that can still do little wrong.

However, based on his limited chase form (when he didn’t appear a natural) and his extensive hurdle form, he would seem to have his work cut out off a mark of 153.

The two I am interested in, at the prices, are Buywise and Annacotty…

I tipped Buywise for the Paddy Power and he ran a decent enough race to finish fifth. He lacked the tactical pace/toughness to maintain a prominent position in the first half of the race and consequently found himself with a huge amount of ground to make up from the top of Cheltenham hill.

It is to his credit that he managed to make up so much, that ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths at the line.

The suggestion from that run, was that he would cope with the step up to 3 miles absolutely fine. This is what his trainer, Evan Williams, said before the Paddy Power. I felt he was covering himself at the time, in case things went wrong – and maybe he was – but all the same, the evidence now suggests that could well be the case.

The rest of the case for him is as per the case for the Paddy Power – he’s a young progressive chaser, with the scope to improve beyond his current mark.

Annacotty is more in the mould of the classic second season chaser that I would look for, in so much as he competed in the major staying novice events last season.

His final run of last season was in the RSA chase at Cheltenham, where he finished eighth behind O’Faolains Boy and Smad Place, having attempted (and failed !) to set the pace.

He also won the Grade 1 Feltham novice chase at Kempton over Christmas, a race in which he did manage to successfully make all.

That wasn’t the first time Annacotty had run well at Kempton, but he proved himself adaptable track-wise, with a fine run next time out, in a strong novice handicap chase at Cheltenham trials meeting.

He could ultimately only finish second that day, but the run showed him capable of running in big field races and away from Kempton.

He raced off a mark of 144 that day – so a mark of 146 in the Hennessy, should not be beyond him.

He has had one pipe-opening run this season, when backed into joint favourite for a graduation chase at Kempton.

Despite the market support, it looked as if he would come on for that run – and with the blinkers reapplied I expect a much better showing in the Hennessy.

A couple of others, who don’t pass the second season rule, but are worthy of a mention non-the-less, are The Druids Nephew (now with a new trainer, who seems to have improved him significantly) and Merry King (ran fifth in the race last year off a 2lb higher mark, when only 6 years old).

I could see both of them running big races  - but suspect they might just lack the bit of class required to win the race.

As a reminder, the 5 day declarations for the race will be released tomorrow afternoon – so prices may be adjusted at that point (assuming the horses are declared !).

0.25 pt win Buywise 20/1 (Tote, Betfred,VC Bet)
0.25pt win Annacotty 25/1 (B365,Sky,VC Bet,Ladbrokes,StanJames,Coral,Betfair Sports)