Cheltenham - Saturday 15th November 2014
Maybe not too surprisingly, the betting for the Paddy Power
Gold cup, is dominated by horses who ran in three of 2m4f races at last March’s
festival…
Present View won the Rewards4racing novice handicap chase –
with Attaglance an unlucky runner-up, Buywise fifth and Persian Snow seventh.
Taquin De Seuil won the JLT novice chase with Uxizandre
second, Double Ross third, Felix Younger fourth, Wonderful Charm fifth and
Oscar Whiskey an early faller.
Whilst Ballynagour hacked up in the Byrne group plate, with
Colour Squadron second and Johns Spirit fourth.
Between them, those 13 horses completely control the betting
for the first major race of the NH season – and if you can figure out which of
them is now the best handicapped, there’s a fair chance you will have cracked
the Paddy Power puzzle !
Needless to say, that is far easier said than done – and
with ground conditions and luck in running also likely to play a big part in
the final outcome, solving the race puzzle poses a significant challenge.
Going through the runners from each of those races, starting
with the Rewards4racing handicap:
It is difficult to knock the chances of Present View...
He may have been a little fortunate to win in March – but as
a consequence he is now rated only 6lb higher. Fit from a good run over hurdles
– and likely to have a nice racing weight – only very soft ground is likely to
stop him running his race.
Soft ground would also be an issue for Attaglance.
Furthermore, you have to feel he is maybe a bit too exposed to be winning one
of these really big handicaps. He will be a pound better off at the weights
with Present View – but I wouldn’t back him to reverse the form.
Of far more interest from the race, is Buywise. He was
beaten 7 lengths by Present View and is 5lb worse off at the weights – but that
really doesn’t tell the story…
He made shocking blunders at 2 of the last 3 fences and it
is testament to his ability that he was able to finish so close at the end.
A subsequent comfortable victory at the Cheltenham April
meeting was bad news from the point of view of his handicap mark (he was raised
12lb for it) – but it did show what he was capable of.
He has no obvious ground preference – and with a
pipe-opening victory over hurdles already under his belt this season, I really
do think he will run a massive race (provided his jumping holds up).
The final representative from the Rewards4racing race is
Persian Snow. And whilst there is no reason to think he won’t run well – I also
will be a little surprised if he is progressive enough to win a race such as
this…
The JLT novice winner, Taquin De Seuil, also looks to have a
very decent chance.
I think he did particularly well to win at the festival –
and as a 7 year old, should still have scope for improvement.
Ground conditions shouldn’t be an issue for him – but his
likely burden might be…
His rating of 159 will see him close to the top of the
handicap – and he really will need to be a grade 1 performer if he is to win.
In truth, the same can be said of JLT runner up, Uxizandre…
He is rated just a pound lower than Taquin de Seuil – which
is about right.
He also has plenty of scope for improvement and is another
capable of running a very big race.
He also has the advantage of being a free-going sort, which
should see him clear of any traffic issues.
Double Ross has less potential than wither Taquin or
Uxizandra – but t is handicapped to just about beat both of them.
Certainly, if the ground is bad, his ability to handle it
and his greater chasing experience, could see him going close.
Felix Younger was sent off favourite for the JLT – but
proved a disappointment. However the handicapper has cut him some slack and it
would be dangerous to underestimate him (assuming Willie Mullins opts to send
him over).
Wonderful Charm was a bit unlucky in the JLT and has
subsequently come out and won this season (a race in which Taquin
disappointed). However, I’m not entirely convinced that he will be able to turn
round the JLT form with those that beat him.
If this were a hurdle race, then Oscar Whiskey would
probably be favourite, off a mark of 156. However, his jumping just isn’t good
enough to enable to compete at the same standard over the larger obstacles and
it will be a little surprising if he is still in contention at the business end
of the race…
Ballynagour blew away the field in the Byrne Group plate –
but his mark was raised by 15lb as a consequence. A couple of runs in grade 1
company at the back end of last season didn’t prove conclusively whether such a
mark is beyond him – but there is almost certainly little margin in it and as an 8 year old, his
scope for improvement is more limited that some.
Runner up in that race was Colour Squadron - and that is a
position that he likes to occupy…
I might have been prepared to give him the benefit of the
doubt – but his defeat by Wonderful Charm on his seasonal debut this campaign,
suggested that he will always look to follow something home.
That is something that can’t be said of Johns Spirit.
He won the Paddy Power last season in emphatic style (from
Colour Squadron !) and whilst following up off a mark 17lb higher this time
round would seem unlikely – given decent ground, it might not prove beyond him…
So there are a few brief thoughts on all the major
contenders, as things currently stand.
If anything does come from left field, it is most likely to
be trained by Willie Mullins – and I wouldn’t currently want to guess what it
might be !
Although flying the face of the form book to an extent, I
was hugely impressed by the performance that Buywise put up in defeat at last
years festival. His seasonal debut over 2 miles and hurdles, smacked of
connections wanting to get him spot on whilst protecting his handicap mark.
His jumping is a slight concern – particularly in what will
be a ferociously competitive race – but provided there is a bit of cut in the
ground I can see him running a massive race.
Of the others, then I would most fear Uxizandre, who could
possibly get the run of the race.
On quick ground, Present View and Johns Sprit would also both
be feared – whilst on soft, Taquin De Seuil and Double Ross would likely be
serious opponents.
0.5pt win Buywise 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
Update: 30/10/2014
Trainer Evan Williams is today quoted as saying Buywise might need another run to get him fully fit - and time is running out to fit one in before the Paddy Power Gold cup.
If you've not backed him yet, I would advise holding fire for a week or so, until running plans become a little clearer
