I’ve been intending to produce a preview the Hennessy for a
couple of weeks now.
I was originally waiting for confirmation that one of my early fancies, Theatre Guide, was running (he’s not !) - and then Pricewise tipped my other fancy, Many Clouds…
I was originally waiting for confirmation that one of my early fancies, Theatre Guide, was running (he’s not !) - and then Pricewise tipped my other fancy, Many Clouds…
Consequently it’s been back to the drawing board, in search
of a probable runner at a value price…
When trying to solve the Hennessy puzzle, I always lean
towards a particular type of horse - a second season novice who has shown some
quality form the previous season, without completely ruining his handicap mark
in the process…
Many Clouds fitted that bill – and was of definite
interest at 12/1. He’s 7/1 now however – and unlikely to be much shorter on the
day.
Djakadam also fits the bill – and is very interesting as the
sole Willie Mullins raider. He warrants the utmost respect simply because of
that - however he is totally unproven over the trip and far too short to
consider, at 11/2.
Despite showing his hand last year, when almost winning the
RSA Chase, Smad Place gets to run off an acceptable mark of 155. That’s broadly
in line with his hurdles mark – and there is reason to think that he can
surpass it over fences.
All things being equal, he should be a player…
The vibes for Fingals Bay are very strong – and he will be
representing the combination of Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson, that can
still do little wrong.
However, based on his limited chase form (when he didn’t
appear a natural) and his extensive hurdle form, he would seem to have his work
cut out off a mark of 153.
The two I am interested in, at the prices, are Buywise and
Annacotty…
I tipped Buywise for the Paddy Power and he ran a decent
enough race to finish fifth. He lacked the tactical pace/toughness to maintain
a prominent position in the first half of the race and consequently found
himself with a huge amount of ground to make up from the top of Cheltenham
hill.
It is to his credit that he managed to make up so much, that
ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths at the line.
The suggestion from that run, was that he would cope with
the step up to 3 miles absolutely fine. This is what his trainer, Evan
Williams, said before the Paddy Power. I felt he was covering himself at the
time, in case things went wrong – and maybe he was – but all the same, the
evidence now suggests that could well be the case.
The rest of the case for him is as per the case for the
Paddy Power – he’s a young progressive chaser, with the scope to improve beyond
his current mark.
Annacotty is more in the mould of the classic second season
chaser that I would look for, in so much as he competed in the major staying
novice events last season.
His final run of last season was in the RSA chase at
Cheltenham, where he finished eighth behind O’Faolains Boy and Smad Place,
having attempted (and failed !) to set the pace.
He also won the Grade 1 Feltham novice chase at Kempton over
Christmas, a race in which he did manage to successfully make all.
That wasn’t the first time Annacotty had run well at
Kempton, but he proved himself adaptable track-wise, with a fine run next time
out, in a strong novice handicap chase at Cheltenham trials meeting.
He could ultimately only finish second that day, but the run
showed him capable of running in big field races and away from Kempton.
He raced off a mark of 144 that day – so a mark of 146 in
the Hennessy, should not be beyond him.
He has had one pipe-opening run this season, when backed
into joint favourite for a graduation chase at Kempton.
Despite the market support, it looked as if he would come on
for that run – and with the blinkers reapplied I expect a much better showing
in the Hennessy.
A couple of others, who don’t pass the second season rule,
but are worthy of a mention non-the-less, are The Druids Nephew (now with a new
trainer, who seems to have improved him significantly) and Merry King (ran
fifth in the race last year off a 2lb higher mark, when only 6 years old).
I could see both of them running big races - but suspect they might just lack the bit
of class required to win the race.
As a reminder, the 5 day declarations for the race will be
released tomorrow afternoon – so prices may be adjusted at that point (assuming
the horses are declared !).
0.25 pt win Buywise 20/1 (Tote, Betfred,VC Bet)
0.25pt win Annacotty 25/1 (B365,Sky,VC Bet,Ladbrokes,StanJames,Coral,Betfair Sports)
0.25pt win Annacotty 25/1 (B365,Sky,VC Bet,Ladbrokes,StanJames,Coral,Betfair Sports)
