Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham - Friday 13th March 

With the King George and the Lexus now done and dusted, it seems like an appropriate time to dip a toe into the Gold Cup market…

After a comfortable win in the King George, it is understandable that Silviniaco Conti is now a short priced favourite for the Gold Cup – but a best price of 3/1 about a horse who faltered when faced with the Cheltenham hill 12 months ago, makes limited appeal…

Of far more interest, is the horse who chased him home in the King George – Dynaste.

The question mark over him has always been his ability to stay the Gold Cup trip – but he powered up the hill when winning last seasons Ryanair chase – and if you watch the finish of the King George again, you will see that having been caught flat footed when the pace quickened early in the home straight, he is actually closing on Silviniaco Conti after the last.

In fairness, he was still 4 length shy of the winner at the line – but that kind of margin can be easily over-turned, up the Cheltenham hill.

Ofcourse the biggest concern with Dynaste, is that connections opt to try and retain their Ryanair crown

However that prize is nowhere near as Prestigious (or valuable !) as the Gold Cup pot –and with a horse who should be at his peak in March, it is likely to be this time round or never…

I’ll make him a win only tip – and to a minimum stake – because of the doubts.

And it is highly likely that I will add to this position before the big day.
But as an opening gambit in the race, I think Dynaste is a fair call…

0.25pt win Dynaste 33/1 (Paddy Power, 25/1 Boylesports, Betfair SB)

Welsh Grand National

Chepstow - Saturday 27th December

Run over an extreme distance, in the middle of winter, the Coral Welsh National is only ever won by a horse with limitless stamina.

The field for this years renewal has a bit of a lop sided look to it, with Harry Topper rated 9lb higher than any of the other runners.

If he turns up, a number of the lower weighted horses will be forced to carry a few pounds more than they’ve been allocated.
If he doesn’t it will make life much more difficult for the runners currently set to carry 10st7lb or above (as they will then have to carry in excess of 11st).
My feeling is that we won't (I suspect he will be sent to Ireland instead).

Last years contest was won by Mountainous, who got the better of a titanic battle with Hawkes Point.

Both horses are on target for the race again this season - and as they are each only rated 2lb higher than 12 moths ago, they clearly must have a chance.

That said, neither have been in the best of form, so supporters will be hoping they can  bounce back to form on the big day.

The David Pipe trained Amigo could only finish seventh in last years contest.

He will be at least 6lb better of with Mountainous this time round (if Harry Topper runs) – though more importantly, he will have greater experience.

His run in last seasons race, was only his second over fences in the UK (he had run a few times over fences in his native France). For one so inexperienced (he was only 6 at the time), it was a creditable effort.

His 2 runs this season suggest he is an improved performer. First time out, he was still travelling fine, when unseating his rider in a hot running of the Southern national at Fontwell.

On his only subsequent run, he finished second in the ‘official’ trial for this race – with both Mountainous and Hawkes Point, well behind.

It’s interesting that he is David Pipes only entry in the race – and whilst his stamina is not absolutely guaranteed, he ran well enough 12 months ago to give hope that he won’t be found wanting on that front (particularly now he is a year older).

The other one I want on side for the contest, certainly won’t be found wanting for a lack of stamina !
Emperors Choice won the West Wales National last season, in absolutely atrocious conditions. That race was over 3m4f (so a furlong less that the Welsh National) – and it was his ability to keep going in bottom-less ground, that won him the day. He followed up that run, with a second to Rigadin De Beauchene, in similar conditions at Haydock – and you have to fancy his chances of turning round that form on at least 10lb better terms…

His 2 runs this season have seen him finish second to Gas Line Boy at Haydock (he should have the beating of that one on significantly better terms) and fourth to Tails of Milan at Sandown (a course which I don’t feel really suits him).

Those 2 runs should ensure he is now spot on.

I think a very good case can be made for him – and as he is still only 7, there is a strong possibility that he could improve further.

He can currently be backed at 33/1 in a place - which seems big. If he makes it there on the day, I could easily see him being less than half that price.

0.25pt win Amigo 25/1 (Generally) 

0.25pt win Emperors Choice 33/1 (Ladbrokes, 25/1 Generally)