Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham - Thursday 12th March

As with the Champion chase, the betting for the Ryanair chase, could be thrown into turmoil after tomorrows Clarence House chase….

Defeat for Sprinter Sacre in that race, will doubtless see a number of the horses currently quoted for the Ryanair, switching their attentions to the shorter event.

The likes of Champagne Fever, Balder Succes, Hidden Cyclone and Uxizandre – all currently quoted at 20/1 or less for the Ryanair could easily end up contesting the Champion chase, if Sprinter Sacre is absent…

In that case, then the prices on the other Ryanair candidates will doubtless drop a little – so it makes some sense to strike a bet in that race today…

Just yesterday, Don Cossack set the benchmark for the race, with a win in the Kinloch Brae chase in  Ireland.

That was a good performance – even allowing for the last fence fall of Champagne Fever – and I can see him running a big race at Cheltenham.
However, I really don’t think he sets an insurmountable standard…

He is currently sharing favouritism for the race with Dynaste (whom I hope goes for the Gold Cup instead!) – and that is our entry point to the race.

Dynaste was a good winner of the Ryanair chase last season – and ran an excellent third in the red hot Betfair chase at Haydock, on his comeback this time round.

A couple of lengths behind him in fourth that day, was Cue Card – the 2013 winner of the Ryanair – and ofcourse the winner of the race, was Silviniaco Conti (who subsequently went on to win the King George).

However this is where it gets interesting, as 8 lengths in front of Dynaste that day, was Menorah…

He was outstayed by Silviniaco Conti that day, having looked likely to win, approaching the last.

His subsequent disappointing run in the King George seems to have thrown everyone off the scent – but based on that piece of form, Menorah is the second best chaser currently in training.

Official ratings back that up, as he is the highest rated horse in the Ryanair chase- yet he can be backed at 25/1 !

Ofcourse, I’m being a little selective with my reading of the form book: Menorah was well beaten in last seasons Ryanair, for example – but he has looked an improved performer this season (prior to the Betfair chase, he was a good winner of the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby).

There will be those who feel that, at 10, he may be a bit old for a race like the Ryanair.

But interestingly in it’s 10 year history, 3 horses of that vintage have been successful…

Simply, Menorah is much too big a price for the race.

He has ticks in every box and has been layed out for the race by top connections.

I’m a little concerned about over-staking a horse with no NRNB guarantee – but value like this doesn’t appear every day of the week, so I think it is time to play up some of our winnings from earlier in the campaign !

0.5pt win/0.25pt place Menorah 25/1 Ladbrokes (20/1 Sky and BF Sportsbook)

(so 0.25pt win & 0.25pt EW)

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Cheltenham - Wednesday 11th March

This weekends Clarence House chase is likely to have a huge impact on the betting for the Queen Mother Champion chase.

All being well, ‘The black Aeroplane’, Sprinter Sacre, will make his long awaited re-appearance.

It’s over a year since he set foot on a race course - that was when pulled up with a fibrillating heart, behind Sire De Grugy at Kempton.

Saturday is likely to be make or break for him – not just for this season, but probably his career.

I honestly hope he destroys his rivals on Saturday – he’s by far the most naturally gifted chaser I’ve ever seen and the game needs super-stars like him…

With the shape and market for the Champion chase, hinging on how he performs, now might seem an odd time to be tipping in the race - but I actually think it’s the ideal time to strike this particular bet...

And the bet I want to make for the March show-piece, is Simply Ned – each way (and NRNB).

Now don’t get me wrong, if a top form Sprinter Sacre shows up at Cheltenham, Simply Ned will get blown away – but then again, so will all the other runners in the race.

However, as most of their trainers know that, many of them won’t bother turning up…

All things being equal, Simply Ned will be there – and in that scenario, the fewer rivals he has to face, the better.

As things stand, he is currently just over 6/1 to be placed – and I think that is generous.

Simply Ned has already run big races in two of the best 2 mile chases run this season.
At Cheltenham in November he finished second in the Shloer chase to Uxizandre, with Dodging Bullets just behind in third; whilst just after Christmas, he ran third in the Dial-a-bet chase at Leopardstown, chasing home Twinlight and Hidden Cyclone.

Both of those runs suggest that Simply Ned is capable of mixing it with the best in the division (excluding Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy) – but he has one big thing in his favour…

Simply Ned is a horse who has a marked preference for good ground.

Trudging around in the mud is never going to see him in his best light, so it is my expectation that the warmer temperatures and better ground, will result in him improving past the horses who have beaten him during the depths of winter.

Like I say, I wouldn’t expect him to beat Sprinter Sacre – or maybe even Sire de Grugy – if they turn up, but I would hope he could beat the rest…

Ofcourse, the beauty is, that’s just the saver part of the bet: if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don’t make the gig, then things really could get really interesting…

In that scenario, then whilst there will doubtless be more runners in the race – few will have better credentials than Simply Ned, and I very much doubt he will be anywhere near the 25/1 currently on offer, come the day of the race.

In that scenario, we will be on a live one at a big price.

Now that’s the kind of bet I like !

0.25pt EW Simply Ned 25/1 NRNB (B365,Sky,Tote, Betfred & Paddy Power)