Grand National

Aintree - Saturday 11th April

I’ve been really disappointed by how few genuine opportunities there have been to build a Cheltenham portfolio.

I outlined the reasons in the penultimate post on the blog (‘Mares hurdle’) – but it’s still disappointing.

After such a strong start to the ante-post season, I was hoping to really attack Cheltenham – but that’s not going to happen.

I’ve only been able to tip 4 horses for the festival – and 2 of those are unlikely to run ! (Dynaste and Menorah).

Obviously, I could have tipped lots more – and I may have hit lucky – but unlike those who are compelled to tip in Cheltenham races because of editorial demands (Pricewise, Rein Man etc.), I am under no such obligation.

If I tip a horse on this blog, it’s because I think it has a chance of winning – and it is available (in theory at least !) at a ‘value’ price,

I’ll be intrigued to see how the portfolios of the various ante-post tipsters actually look, come race day.
My suspicion is that they will have achieved very little in the way of ‘value’ – because I think there has been very little ‘value’ to be had.

I honestly think that we are now more likely to find attractive bets on race day – when the make up of the fields and the ground conditions are known…

Anyway, I’ve effectively knocked the Cheltenham portfolio on the head – and have turned my attention to Aintree (from an ante-post perspective at least !).

One good thing about Cheltenham is that it so dominates everything, people forget about the other big races that will be taking place – like the Grand National !

I’ve spent some time going through the likely runners for the National – and have found 4 or 5 of interest.

Unfortunately, most of them are either near the head of the market – or have precise ground requirements – or both !

However, there is one runner that I think has a big chance – has no marked ground requirement – and is still a decent price !

Teaforthree is a horse with Grand National ‘previous’…

Third behind Auroras Encore in 2013; he was sent off joint favourite for last years race, but unseated his rider at the Chair.

That was a bit of a shock, as there aren’t many better jumpers of a fence in training.

I think we can treat that as a one-off…

Following his run in last years race, he was sent Pointing and made his seasonal debut this campaign in the Hunter Chase at Bangor.

Despite that being run over a trip that would have been far too short for him (2m4f), his class saw him home in front.

He was sent off a very short priced favourite for his next race, just 8 days later…

He was presumably turned out quickly so that he could get in the mandatory 2 runs in hunter chases that would enable him to qualify for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.

However, the race was run at Haydock  on very soft ground and turned into something of a disaster.

Whether it was the ground – or that he hadn’t full recovered from his first run – for whatever reason, Teaforthree just didn’t perform.

As a consequence, Rebecca Curtis took the decision to abandon the plan to run him in the Foxhunters – and to focus on the Grand National instead.

I think that could be a smart move.

Whilst maybe just past his prime, at 11 Teaforthree is still close to the peak of his powers.
His Bangor run suggested that he retains all of his ability – and his previous experience at Aintree, has to be a big plus.

The really attractive aspect of him however, is his handicap mark.

In 2013 he finished third off a mark of 151: last season he was favourite when running off a mark of 149.

This time around, he gets to run off a mark of 144.

I doubt he has deteriorated that much (if at all).

Teaforthree can currently be backed at 33/1 for the big race – and that is just wrong.

Obviously there is a danger that he won’t get there – but that’s true for all the runners.

He’s being targeted at the race – and with good Aintree form and a very attractive handicap mark, I fully expect him to be well backed.

I could easily see him being sent off at half his current price on the day – maybe even shorter…

I’m putting him up win only, because that’s my style.

I would expect to tip 2 or 3 more for the race as well.
If you prefer the safety of EW, then I wouldn’t dissuade you.

0.25pt win Teaforthree 33/1 Ladbrokes,VC Bet, William Hills