Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham - Friday 13th March 

My first stab at the Gold Cup officially sank this week, when Dynaste was ruled out for the remainder of the season.

In truth, I had pretty much given up on it anyway, as his connections seemed intent on targeting him at the Ryanair.

Such are the perils of ante-post punting – not every 33/1 shot I put up is going to perform like Emperors Choice did  !

That said, I am very optimistic that this one just might ;)

Taquin Du Seuil is the forgotten horse of the Gold Cup.

4 months ago, he was starting his campaign as a second season novice with the world at his feet: 3 disappointing runs later, he is in the wilderness.

But, in my opinion, it is far too soon to be writing him off…

It was only last March that he took the Grade 1 JLT chase at the Cheltenham festival, showing great tenacity to run down Uxizandre in the shadows of the post.

It looked for all the world that day, as if he needed further than that 2m5f, so it was no surprise to hear Jonjo nominate the Gold Cup as his objective for this season – and for him to be campaigned accordingly.

However, it just hasn’t worked out.

A disappointing seasonal debut at Newton Abbot was followed by an OK run at Wetherby; and then more disappointment in the Betfair chase at Haydock.

However, it should be borne in mind that Jonjo has had a wretched time of it so far this season – so the performances of Taquin so far this seaon, need to be looked at in context…

Certainly, if you ignore this season and just look at what he achieved last season, you have the profile of a potential Gold Cup contender.

And that’s what I’m hoping he will prove himself to be – starting tomorrow.

He contests the Denman chase at Newbury tomorrow afternoon, and victory there is likely to see his current price for the Gold Cup slashed.

At the moment, he can be backed at 40/1 with Sky NRNB for the race.

My feeling is that if he wins well tomorrow, that price will come crashing down.

The reality is, this still looks a wide open Gold Cup – Silviniaco Conti aside – and Taquin could easily throw his hat into the ring tomorrow.

Ofcourse the beauty of this bet is that if he doesn’t win (or run well tomorrow), he probably won’t run in the Gold Cup.
So, a win: no lose bet – now they are the type I like :)

0.25pt EW Taquin De Seuil 40/1 Sky NRNB (33/1 B365,Tote,Betfred,Paddy Power - all NRNB)

Don't be tempted by the 50/1 offered by Stan James as it isn't NRNB

Mares Hurdle

Cheltenham - Tuesday 10th March 

I have to admit that pulling together an ante post portfolio for Cheltenham, is proving to be a bit of a challenge…

There are 3 issues that I’m having to contend with:

Firstly, there are very short favourites (justifiably so) in a number of the races which have been priced up. Non of them can be supported at their current odds – but they are not easily opposed either.

Secondly, the strangle hold that Willie Mullins has on the novice events (hurdle and chase) makes them very difficult races to back in.

He has such an array of options, second-guessing him is impossible – and opposing his is fraught with danger.

Finally, there are now a lot of professional tipsters building Cheltenham portfolios, who make their thoughts available to the betting public.

Pricewise is the most high profile exponent: but Paul Kealy does similar in the RP Weekender; whilst both the Oddschecker and The Sporting Life sites also have tipsters building portfolios.
The problem with this is that if any ‘value’ does appear in the ante-post market, one of them normally spots it and it doesn’t last long !

As a consequence, my activity in this area hasn’t been as extensive as I would have liked – but there’s not a lot I can do about it. I’m certainly not going to tip something simply so that we can have a bit of ante-post action !

Anyway, enough of the gripes – and on to the tip.

As keen TVB followers will know, tipping EW is not my style.

However, bearing in mind the issue I mentioned above, with regard to very short priced favourites, it’s a path that I am exploring.

As whilst I can’t see value in a lot of the ‘win’ markets, I do think it can be found in the ‘place’ market for a few of the races.

Possibly the best example can be found in the Mares hurdle, which is the penultimate event of the first day of the meeting.

The betting for this race is dominated by the Willie Mullins trained super mare, Annie Power.

This is understandable, as her second in last seasons World Hurdle, is by far the best form in the race – and she should be suited by a drop in trip for the mares race.

She is rated at least 7lb superior to all of her potential rivals – and the only slight concern over her is that she is likely to turn up at the festival without a previous run this season.

Mullins used the same tactic with Quevega – and it’s hard to believe he won’t have Annie Power spot on for the big day.

She will take all the beating.

Officially, the second best horse in the race, is Polly Peachum – and as she is a mare still on an upward curve, I’m a bit surprised that she is not second favourite.

Admittedly she was disappointing last time out, but that was in a strange race at Kempton, run on very soft ground. I’m pretty sure that run can be ignored.

Prior to that run, Polly Peachum had given 21lb to the now 132 rated Blue Buttons, and cantered all over her. That run showed that Polly Peachum is well worth her current rating of 155 – a rating which puts her 6lb clear of all her other rivals in the race, with the exception of Annie Power.

The other piece of form which shows Polly Peachum well up to at least placing in this race, is her defeat of L’Unique at Cheltenham last April.

In receipt of 6lb, she comfortably beat L’Unique by 5 lengths that day (suggesting she was the superior mare). On her previous outing, L’Unique had finished third to Quevega in last seasons mares race – just behind Glenns Melody.

Provided she turns up in top form – and the ground isn’t desperate, then think Polly Peachum will run a huge race.

She might not quite be up to beating Annie Power – but I’m sure she’s capable of giving her a race - and of finishing in front of all her other potential rivals…

0.25pt EW Polly Peachum 16/1 (Paddy Power, 14/1 Sky, Coral)