Grand National

Aintree - Saturday 11th April

I’ve been really disappointed by how few genuine opportunities there have been to build a Cheltenham portfolio.

I outlined the reasons in the penultimate post on the blog (‘Mares hurdle’) – but it’s still disappointing.

After such a strong start to the ante-post season, I was hoping to really attack Cheltenham – but that’s not going to happen.

I’ve only been able to tip 4 horses for the festival – and 2 of those are unlikely to run ! (Dynaste and Menorah).

Obviously, I could have tipped lots more – and I may have hit lucky – but unlike those who are compelled to tip in Cheltenham races because of editorial demands (Pricewise, Rein Man etc.), I am under no such obligation.

If I tip a horse on this blog, it’s because I think it has a chance of winning – and it is available (in theory at least !) at a ‘value’ price,

I’ll be intrigued to see how the portfolios of the various ante-post tipsters actually look, come race day.
My suspicion is that they will have achieved very little in the way of ‘value’ – because I think there has been very little ‘value’ to be had.

I honestly think that we are now more likely to find attractive bets on race day – when the make up of the fields and the ground conditions are known…

Anyway, I’ve effectively knocked the Cheltenham portfolio on the head – and have turned my attention to Aintree (from an ante-post perspective at least !).

One good thing about Cheltenham is that it so dominates everything, people forget about the other big races that will be taking place – like the Grand National !

I’ve spent some time going through the likely runners for the National – and have found 4 or 5 of interest.

Unfortunately, most of them are either near the head of the market – or have precise ground requirements – or both !

However, there is one runner that I think has a big chance – has no marked ground requirement – and is still a decent price !

Teaforthree is a horse with Grand National ‘previous’…

Third behind Auroras Encore in 2013; he was sent off joint favourite for last years race, but unseated his rider at the Chair.

That was a bit of a shock, as there aren’t many better jumpers of a fence in training.

I think we can treat that as a one-off…

Following his run in last years race, he was sent Pointing and made his seasonal debut this campaign in the Hunter Chase at Bangor.

Despite that being run over a trip that would have been far too short for him (2m4f), his class saw him home in front.

He was sent off a very short priced favourite for his next race, just 8 days later…

He was presumably turned out quickly so that he could get in the mandatory 2 runs in hunter chases that would enable him to qualify for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.

However, the race was run at Haydock  on very soft ground and turned into something of a disaster.

Whether it was the ground – or that he hadn’t full recovered from his first run – for whatever reason, Teaforthree just didn’t perform.

As a consequence, Rebecca Curtis took the decision to abandon the plan to run him in the Foxhunters – and to focus on the Grand National instead.

I think that could be a smart move.

Whilst maybe just past his prime, at 11 Teaforthree is still close to the peak of his powers.
His Bangor run suggested that he retains all of his ability – and his previous experience at Aintree, has to be a big plus.

The really attractive aspect of him however, is his handicap mark.

In 2013 he finished third off a mark of 151: last season he was favourite when running off a mark of 149.

This time around, he gets to run off a mark of 144.

I doubt he has deteriorated that much (if at all).

Teaforthree can currently be backed at 33/1 for the big race – and that is just wrong.

Obviously there is a danger that he won’t get there – but that’s true for all the runners.

He’s being targeted at the race – and with good Aintree form and a very attractive handicap mark, I fully expect him to be well backed.

I could easily see him being sent off at half his current price on the day – maybe even shorter…

I’m putting him up win only, because that’s my style.

I would expect to tip 2 or 3 more for the race as well.
If you prefer the safety of EW, then I wouldn’t dissuade you.

0.25pt win Teaforthree 33/1 Ladbrokes,VC Bet, William Hills

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham - Friday 13th March 

My first stab at the Gold Cup officially sank this week, when Dynaste was ruled out for the remainder of the season.

In truth, I had pretty much given up on it anyway, as his connections seemed intent on targeting him at the Ryanair.

Such are the perils of ante-post punting – not every 33/1 shot I put up is going to perform like Emperors Choice did  !

That said, I am very optimistic that this one just might ;)

Taquin Du Seuil is the forgotten horse of the Gold Cup.

4 months ago, he was starting his campaign as a second season novice with the world at his feet: 3 disappointing runs later, he is in the wilderness.

But, in my opinion, it is far too soon to be writing him off…

It was only last March that he took the Grade 1 JLT chase at the Cheltenham festival, showing great tenacity to run down Uxizandre in the shadows of the post.

It looked for all the world that day, as if he needed further than that 2m5f, so it was no surprise to hear Jonjo nominate the Gold Cup as his objective for this season – and for him to be campaigned accordingly.

However, it just hasn’t worked out.

A disappointing seasonal debut at Newton Abbot was followed by an OK run at Wetherby; and then more disappointment in the Betfair chase at Haydock.

However, it should be borne in mind that Jonjo has had a wretched time of it so far this season – so the performances of Taquin so far this seaon, need to be looked at in context…

Certainly, if you ignore this season and just look at what he achieved last season, you have the profile of a potential Gold Cup contender.

And that’s what I’m hoping he will prove himself to be – starting tomorrow.

He contests the Denman chase at Newbury tomorrow afternoon, and victory there is likely to see his current price for the Gold Cup slashed.

At the moment, he can be backed at 40/1 with Sky NRNB for the race.

My feeling is that if he wins well tomorrow, that price will come crashing down.

The reality is, this still looks a wide open Gold Cup – Silviniaco Conti aside – and Taquin could easily throw his hat into the ring tomorrow.

Ofcourse the beauty of this bet is that if he doesn’t win (or run well tomorrow), he probably won’t run in the Gold Cup.
So, a win: no lose bet – now they are the type I like :)

0.25pt EW Taquin De Seuil 40/1 Sky NRNB (33/1 B365,Tote,Betfred,Paddy Power - all NRNB)

Don't be tempted by the 50/1 offered by Stan James as it isn't NRNB

Mares Hurdle

Cheltenham - Tuesday 10th March 

I have to admit that pulling together an ante post portfolio for Cheltenham, is proving to be a bit of a challenge…

There are 3 issues that I’m having to contend with:

Firstly, there are very short favourites (justifiably so) in a number of the races which have been priced up. Non of them can be supported at their current odds – but they are not easily opposed either.

Secondly, the strangle hold that Willie Mullins has on the novice events (hurdle and chase) makes them very difficult races to back in.

He has such an array of options, second-guessing him is impossible – and opposing his is fraught with danger.

Finally, there are now a lot of professional tipsters building Cheltenham portfolios, who make their thoughts available to the betting public.

Pricewise is the most high profile exponent: but Paul Kealy does similar in the RP Weekender; whilst both the Oddschecker and The Sporting Life sites also have tipsters building portfolios.
The problem with this is that if any ‘value’ does appear in the ante-post market, one of them normally spots it and it doesn’t last long !

As a consequence, my activity in this area hasn’t been as extensive as I would have liked – but there’s not a lot I can do about it. I’m certainly not going to tip something simply so that we can have a bit of ante-post action !

Anyway, enough of the gripes – and on to the tip.

As keen TVB followers will know, tipping EW is not my style.

However, bearing in mind the issue I mentioned above, with regard to very short priced favourites, it’s a path that I am exploring.

As whilst I can’t see value in a lot of the ‘win’ markets, I do think it can be found in the ‘place’ market for a few of the races.

Possibly the best example can be found in the Mares hurdle, which is the penultimate event of the first day of the meeting.

The betting for this race is dominated by the Willie Mullins trained super mare, Annie Power.

This is understandable, as her second in last seasons World Hurdle, is by far the best form in the race – and she should be suited by a drop in trip for the mares race.

She is rated at least 7lb superior to all of her potential rivals – and the only slight concern over her is that she is likely to turn up at the festival without a previous run this season.

Mullins used the same tactic with Quevega – and it’s hard to believe he won’t have Annie Power spot on for the big day.

She will take all the beating.

Officially, the second best horse in the race, is Polly Peachum – and as she is a mare still on an upward curve, I’m a bit surprised that she is not second favourite.

Admittedly she was disappointing last time out, but that was in a strange race at Kempton, run on very soft ground. I’m pretty sure that run can be ignored.

Prior to that run, Polly Peachum had given 21lb to the now 132 rated Blue Buttons, and cantered all over her. That run showed that Polly Peachum is well worth her current rating of 155 – a rating which puts her 6lb clear of all her other rivals in the race, with the exception of Annie Power.

The other piece of form which shows Polly Peachum well up to at least placing in this race, is her defeat of L’Unique at Cheltenham last April.

In receipt of 6lb, she comfortably beat L’Unique by 5 lengths that day (suggesting she was the superior mare). On her previous outing, L’Unique had finished third to Quevega in last seasons mares race – just behind Glenns Melody.

Provided she turns up in top form – and the ground isn’t desperate, then think Polly Peachum will run a huge race.

She might not quite be up to beating Annie Power – but I’m sure she’s capable of giving her a race - and of finishing in front of all her other potential rivals…

0.25pt EW Polly Peachum 16/1 (Paddy Power, 14/1 Sky, Coral)

Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham - Thursday 12th March

As with the Champion chase, the betting for the Ryanair chase, could be thrown into turmoil after tomorrows Clarence House chase….

Defeat for Sprinter Sacre in that race, will doubtless see a number of the horses currently quoted for the Ryanair, switching their attentions to the shorter event.

The likes of Champagne Fever, Balder Succes, Hidden Cyclone and Uxizandre – all currently quoted at 20/1 or less for the Ryanair could easily end up contesting the Champion chase, if Sprinter Sacre is absent…

In that case, then the prices on the other Ryanair candidates will doubtless drop a little – so it makes some sense to strike a bet in that race today…

Just yesterday, Don Cossack set the benchmark for the race, with a win in the Kinloch Brae chase in  Ireland.

That was a good performance – even allowing for the last fence fall of Champagne Fever – and I can see him running a big race at Cheltenham.
However, I really don’t think he sets an insurmountable standard…

He is currently sharing favouritism for the race with Dynaste (whom I hope goes for the Gold Cup instead!) – and that is our entry point to the race.

Dynaste was a good winner of the Ryanair chase last season – and ran an excellent third in the red hot Betfair chase at Haydock, on his comeback this time round.

A couple of lengths behind him in fourth that day, was Cue Card – the 2013 winner of the Ryanair – and ofcourse the winner of the race, was Silviniaco Conti (who subsequently went on to win the King George).

However this is where it gets interesting, as 8 lengths in front of Dynaste that day, was Menorah…

He was outstayed by Silviniaco Conti that day, having looked likely to win, approaching the last.

His subsequent disappointing run in the King George seems to have thrown everyone off the scent – but based on that piece of form, Menorah is the second best chaser currently in training.

Official ratings back that up, as he is the highest rated horse in the Ryanair chase- yet he can be backed at 25/1 !

Ofcourse, I’m being a little selective with my reading of the form book: Menorah was well beaten in last seasons Ryanair, for example – but he has looked an improved performer this season (prior to the Betfair chase, he was a good winner of the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby).

There will be those who feel that, at 10, he may be a bit old for a race like the Ryanair.

But interestingly in it’s 10 year history, 3 horses of that vintage have been successful…

Simply, Menorah is much too big a price for the race.

He has ticks in every box and has been layed out for the race by top connections.

I’m a little concerned about over-staking a horse with no NRNB guarantee – but value like this doesn’t appear every day of the week, so I think it is time to play up some of our winnings from earlier in the campaign !

0.5pt win/0.25pt place Menorah 25/1 Ladbrokes (20/1 Sky and BF Sportsbook)

(so 0.25pt win & 0.25pt EW)

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Cheltenham - Wednesday 11th March

This weekends Clarence House chase is likely to have a huge impact on the betting for the Queen Mother Champion chase.

All being well, ‘The black Aeroplane’, Sprinter Sacre, will make his long awaited re-appearance.

It’s over a year since he set foot on a race course - that was when pulled up with a fibrillating heart, behind Sire De Grugy at Kempton.

Saturday is likely to be make or break for him – not just for this season, but probably his career.

I honestly hope he destroys his rivals on Saturday – he’s by far the most naturally gifted chaser I’ve ever seen and the game needs super-stars like him…

With the shape and market for the Champion chase, hinging on how he performs, now might seem an odd time to be tipping in the race - but I actually think it’s the ideal time to strike this particular bet...

And the bet I want to make for the March show-piece, is Simply Ned – each way (and NRNB).

Now don’t get me wrong, if a top form Sprinter Sacre shows up at Cheltenham, Simply Ned will get blown away – but then again, so will all the other runners in the race.

However, as most of their trainers know that, many of them won’t bother turning up…

All things being equal, Simply Ned will be there – and in that scenario, the fewer rivals he has to face, the better.

As things stand, he is currently just over 6/1 to be placed – and I think that is generous.

Simply Ned has already run big races in two of the best 2 mile chases run this season.
At Cheltenham in November he finished second in the Shloer chase to Uxizandre, with Dodging Bullets just behind in third; whilst just after Christmas, he ran third in the Dial-a-bet chase at Leopardstown, chasing home Twinlight and Hidden Cyclone.

Both of those runs suggest that Simply Ned is capable of mixing it with the best in the division (excluding Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy) – but he has one big thing in his favour…

Simply Ned is a horse who has a marked preference for good ground.

Trudging around in the mud is never going to see him in his best light, so it is my expectation that the warmer temperatures and better ground, will result in him improving past the horses who have beaten him during the depths of winter.

Like I say, I wouldn’t expect him to beat Sprinter Sacre – or maybe even Sire de Grugy – if they turn up, but I would hope he could beat the rest…

Ofcourse, the beauty is, that’s just the saver part of the bet: if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don’t make the gig, then things really could get really interesting…

In that scenario, then whilst there will doubtless be more runners in the race – few will have better credentials than Simply Ned, and I very much doubt he will be anywhere near the 25/1 currently on offer, come the day of the race.

In that scenario, we will be on a live one at a big price.

Now that’s the kind of bet I like !

0.25pt EW Simply Ned 25/1 NRNB (B365,Sky,Tote, Betfred & Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham - Friday 13th March 

With the King George and the Lexus now done and dusted, it seems like an appropriate time to dip a toe into the Gold Cup market…

After a comfortable win in the King George, it is understandable that Silviniaco Conti is now a short priced favourite for the Gold Cup – but a best price of 3/1 about a horse who faltered when faced with the Cheltenham hill 12 months ago, makes limited appeal…

Of far more interest, is the horse who chased him home in the King George – Dynaste.

The question mark over him has always been his ability to stay the Gold Cup trip – but he powered up the hill when winning last seasons Ryanair chase – and if you watch the finish of the King George again, you will see that having been caught flat footed when the pace quickened early in the home straight, he is actually closing on Silviniaco Conti after the last.

In fairness, he was still 4 length shy of the winner at the line – but that kind of margin can be easily over-turned, up the Cheltenham hill.

Ofcourse the biggest concern with Dynaste, is that connections opt to try and retain their Ryanair crown

However that prize is nowhere near as Prestigious (or valuable !) as the Gold Cup pot –and with a horse who should be at his peak in March, it is likely to be this time round or never…

I’ll make him a win only tip – and to a minimum stake – because of the doubts.

And it is highly likely that I will add to this position before the big day.
But as an opening gambit in the race, I think Dynaste is a fair call…

0.25pt win Dynaste 33/1 (Paddy Power, 25/1 Boylesports, Betfair SB)

Welsh Grand National

Chepstow - Saturday 27th December

Run over an extreme distance, in the middle of winter, the Coral Welsh National is only ever won by a horse with limitless stamina.

The field for this years renewal has a bit of a lop sided look to it, with Harry Topper rated 9lb higher than any of the other runners.

If he turns up, a number of the lower weighted horses will be forced to carry a few pounds more than they’ve been allocated.
If he doesn’t it will make life much more difficult for the runners currently set to carry 10st7lb or above (as they will then have to carry in excess of 11st).
My feeling is that we won't (I suspect he will be sent to Ireland instead).

Last years contest was won by Mountainous, who got the better of a titanic battle with Hawkes Point.

Both horses are on target for the race again this season - and as they are each only rated 2lb higher than 12 moths ago, they clearly must have a chance.

That said, neither have been in the best of form, so supporters will be hoping they can  bounce back to form on the big day.

The David Pipe trained Amigo could only finish seventh in last years contest.

He will be at least 6lb better of with Mountainous this time round (if Harry Topper runs) – though more importantly, he will have greater experience.

His run in last seasons race, was only his second over fences in the UK (he had run a few times over fences in his native France). For one so inexperienced (he was only 6 at the time), it was a creditable effort.

His 2 runs this season suggest he is an improved performer. First time out, he was still travelling fine, when unseating his rider in a hot running of the Southern national at Fontwell.

On his only subsequent run, he finished second in the ‘official’ trial for this race – with both Mountainous and Hawkes Point, well behind.

It’s interesting that he is David Pipes only entry in the race – and whilst his stamina is not absolutely guaranteed, he ran well enough 12 months ago to give hope that he won’t be found wanting on that front (particularly now he is a year older).

The other one I want on side for the contest, certainly won’t be found wanting for a lack of stamina !
Emperors Choice won the West Wales National last season, in absolutely atrocious conditions. That race was over 3m4f (so a furlong less that the Welsh National) – and it was his ability to keep going in bottom-less ground, that won him the day. He followed up that run, with a second to Rigadin De Beauchene, in similar conditions at Haydock – and you have to fancy his chances of turning round that form on at least 10lb better terms…

His 2 runs this season have seen him finish second to Gas Line Boy at Haydock (he should have the beating of that one on significantly better terms) and fourth to Tails of Milan at Sandown (a course which I don’t feel really suits him).

Those 2 runs should ensure he is now spot on.

I think a very good case can be made for him – and as he is still only 7, there is a strong possibility that he could improve further.

He can currently be backed at 33/1 in a place - which seems big. If he makes it there on the day, I could easily see him being less than half that price.

0.25pt win Amigo 25/1 (Generally) 

0.25pt win Emperors Choice 33/1 (Ladbrokes, 25/1 Generally)