Mares Hurdle

Cheltenham - Tuesday 10th March 

I have to admit that pulling together an ante post portfolio for Cheltenham, is proving to be a bit of a challenge…

There are 3 issues that I’m having to contend with:

Firstly, there are very short favourites (justifiably so) in a number of the races which have been priced up. Non of them can be supported at their current odds – but they are not easily opposed either.

Secondly, the strangle hold that Willie Mullins has on the novice events (hurdle and chase) makes them very difficult races to back in.

He has such an array of options, second-guessing him is impossible – and opposing his is fraught with danger.

Finally, there are now a lot of professional tipsters building Cheltenham portfolios, who make their thoughts available to the betting public.

Pricewise is the most high profile exponent: but Paul Kealy does similar in the RP Weekender; whilst both the Oddschecker and The Sporting Life sites also have tipsters building portfolios.
The problem with this is that if any ‘value’ does appear in the ante-post market, one of them normally spots it and it doesn’t last long !

As a consequence, my activity in this area hasn’t been as extensive as I would have liked – but there’s not a lot I can do about it. I’m certainly not going to tip something simply so that we can have a bit of ante-post action !

Anyway, enough of the gripes – and on to the tip.

As keen TVB followers will know, tipping EW is not my style.

However, bearing in mind the issue I mentioned above, with regard to very short priced favourites, it’s a path that I am exploring.

As whilst I can’t see value in a lot of the ‘win’ markets, I do think it can be found in the ‘place’ market for a few of the races.

Possibly the best example can be found in the Mares hurdle, which is the penultimate event of the first day of the meeting.

The betting for this race is dominated by the Willie Mullins trained super mare, Annie Power.

This is understandable, as her second in last seasons World Hurdle, is by far the best form in the race – and she should be suited by a drop in trip for the mares race.

She is rated at least 7lb superior to all of her potential rivals – and the only slight concern over her is that she is likely to turn up at the festival without a previous run this season.

Mullins used the same tactic with Quevega – and it’s hard to believe he won’t have Annie Power spot on for the big day.

She will take all the beating.

Officially, the second best horse in the race, is Polly Peachum – and as she is a mare still on an upward curve, I’m a bit surprised that she is not second favourite.

Admittedly she was disappointing last time out, but that was in a strange race at Kempton, run on very soft ground. I’m pretty sure that run can be ignored.

Prior to that run, Polly Peachum had given 21lb to the now 132 rated Blue Buttons, and cantered all over her. That run showed that Polly Peachum is well worth her current rating of 155 – a rating which puts her 6lb clear of all her other rivals in the race, with the exception of Annie Power.

The other piece of form which shows Polly Peachum well up to at least placing in this race, is her defeat of L’Unique at Cheltenham last April.

In receipt of 6lb, she comfortably beat L’Unique by 5 lengths that day (suggesting she was the superior mare). On her previous outing, L’Unique had finished third to Quevega in last seasons mares race – just behind Glenns Melody.

Provided she turns up in top form – and the ground isn’t desperate, then think Polly Peachum will run a huge race.

She might not quite be up to beating Annie Power – but I’m sure she’s capable of giving her a race - and of finishing in front of all her other potential rivals…

0.25pt EW Polly Peachum 16/1 (Paddy Power, 14/1 Sky, Coral)