Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham - Thursday 12th March

As with the Champion chase, the betting for the Ryanair chase, could be thrown into turmoil after tomorrows Clarence House chase….

Defeat for Sprinter Sacre in that race, will doubtless see a number of the horses currently quoted for the Ryanair, switching their attentions to the shorter event.

The likes of Champagne Fever, Balder Succes, Hidden Cyclone and Uxizandre – all currently quoted at 20/1 or less for the Ryanair could easily end up contesting the Champion chase, if Sprinter Sacre is absent…

In that case, then the prices on the other Ryanair candidates will doubtless drop a little – so it makes some sense to strike a bet in that race today…

Just yesterday, Don Cossack set the benchmark for the race, with a win in the Kinloch Brae chase in  Ireland.

That was a good performance – even allowing for the last fence fall of Champagne Fever – and I can see him running a big race at Cheltenham.
However, I really don’t think he sets an insurmountable standard…

He is currently sharing favouritism for the race with Dynaste (whom I hope goes for the Gold Cup instead!) – and that is our entry point to the race.

Dynaste was a good winner of the Ryanair chase last season – and ran an excellent third in the red hot Betfair chase at Haydock, on his comeback this time round.

A couple of lengths behind him in fourth that day, was Cue Card – the 2013 winner of the Ryanair – and ofcourse the winner of the race, was Silviniaco Conti (who subsequently went on to win the King George).

However this is where it gets interesting, as 8 lengths in front of Dynaste that day, was Menorah…

He was outstayed by Silviniaco Conti that day, having looked likely to win, approaching the last.

His subsequent disappointing run in the King George seems to have thrown everyone off the scent – but based on that piece of form, Menorah is the second best chaser currently in training.

Official ratings back that up, as he is the highest rated horse in the Ryanair chase- yet he can be backed at 25/1 !

Ofcourse, I’m being a little selective with my reading of the form book: Menorah was well beaten in last seasons Ryanair, for example – but he has looked an improved performer this season (prior to the Betfair chase, he was a good winner of the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby).

There will be those who feel that, at 10, he may be a bit old for a race like the Ryanair.

But interestingly in it’s 10 year history, 3 horses of that vintage have been successful…

Simply, Menorah is much too big a price for the race.

He has ticks in every box and has been layed out for the race by top connections.

I’m a little concerned about over-staking a horse with no NRNB guarantee – but value like this doesn’t appear every day of the week, so I think it is time to play up some of our winnings from earlier in the campaign !

0.5pt win/0.25pt place Menorah 25/1 Ladbrokes (20/1 Sky and BF Sportsbook)

(so 0.25pt win & 0.25pt EW)