Queen Mother Champion Chase

Cheltenham - Wednesday 11th March

This weekends Clarence House chase is likely to have a huge impact on the betting for the Queen Mother Champion chase.

All being well, ‘The black Aeroplane’, Sprinter Sacre, will make his long awaited re-appearance.

It’s over a year since he set foot on a race course - that was when pulled up with a fibrillating heart, behind Sire De Grugy at Kempton.

Saturday is likely to be make or break for him – not just for this season, but probably his career.

I honestly hope he destroys his rivals on Saturday – he’s by far the most naturally gifted chaser I’ve ever seen and the game needs super-stars like him…

With the shape and market for the Champion chase, hinging on how he performs, now might seem an odd time to be tipping in the race - but I actually think it’s the ideal time to strike this particular bet...

And the bet I want to make for the March show-piece, is Simply Ned – each way (and NRNB).

Now don’t get me wrong, if a top form Sprinter Sacre shows up at Cheltenham, Simply Ned will get blown away – but then again, so will all the other runners in the race.

However, as most of their trainers know that, many of them won’t bother turning up…

All things being equal, Simply Ned will be there – and in that scenario, the fewer rivals he has to face, the better.

As things stand, he is currently just over 6/1 to be placed – and I think that is generous.

Simply Ned has already run big races in two of the best 2 mile chases run this season.
At Cheltenham in November he finished second in the Shloer chase to Uxizandre, with Dodging Bullets just behind in third; whilst just after Christmas, he ran third in the Dial-a-bet chase at Leopardstown, chasing home Twinlight and Hidden Cyclone.

Both of those runs suggest that Simply Ned is capable of mixing it with the best in the division (excluding Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy) – but he has one big thing in his favour…

Simply Ned is a horse who has a marked preference for good ground.

Trudging around in the mud is never going to see him in his best light, so it is my expectation that the warmer temperatures and better ground, will result in him improving past the horses who have beaten him during the depths of winter.

Like I say, I wouldn’t expect him to beat Sprinter Sacre – or maybe even Sire de Grugy – if they turn up, but I would hope he could beat the rest…

Ofcourse, the beauty is, that’s just the saver part of the bet: if Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy don’t make the gig, then things really could get really interesting…

In that scenario, then whilst there will doubtless be more runners in the race – few will have better credentials than Simply Ned, and I very much doubt he will be anywhere near the 25/1 currently on offer, come the day of the race.

In that scenario, we will be on a live one at a big price.

Now that’s the kind of bet I like !

0.25pt EW Simply Ned 25/1 NRNB (B365,Sky,Tote, Betfred & Paddy Power)